Black Friday Sales Forecast
Turn your normal traffic, a traffic lift and a conversion rate lift into a Black Friday to Cyber Monday revenue and stock forecast.
Your numbers
Your result · updates as you type
Forecast revenue over 4 days
$10,982
211 orders from 8,000 sessions at a 2.6% conversion rate and a $52.00 average order after your 20% discount.
- Orders forecast
- 211
- Sessions forecast
- 8,000
- Units to have in stock
- 457
This is a planning estimate built entirely from your own assumptions, not a prediction. If you ran the sale last year, use that traffic and conversion lift instead of the defaults, and order stock against the buffered figure, not the raw forecast.
Breakdown
- Daily sessions × lift × days
- 8,000
- × conversion rate (with lift)
- 211 orders
- × average order value after discount
- $10,982
- vs. revenue at normal traffic and price
- $4,576
- Units needed (orders × units/order)
- 380
- + 20% safety stock
- 457
From normal traffic to a BFCM forecast
Black Friday falls on November 27, 2026, with Cyber Monday four days later on November 30. This calculator starts from your normal daily sessions, applies a traffic lift and a conversion rate lift for the event, then works out revenue and the stock you'll need at your discounted price.
Example: the default numbers (4-day event)
- Sessions
- 800 × 2.5 × 4 days = 8,000
- Conversion rate with 20% lift
- 2.2% × 1.2 = 2.64%
- Orders
- 8,000 × 2.64% = 211
- Order value after 20% discount
- $65 × 0.8 = $52.00
Forecast revenue is $10,982 over the 4 days, needing 457 units in stock after a 20% safety buffer.
Making the forecast more reliable
- Use last year's real numbers for traffic and conversion rate lift if you ran a sale before, instead of the defaults.
- Order stock against the buffered figure, not the raw forecast: running out mid-sale costs more than holding a little extra stock.
- Test the traffic-lift bars to see how sensitive revenue is to a weaker or stronger event than expected, so you're not caught out by either extreme.
Questions people ask
When is Black Friday 2026?
Black Friday 2026 is November 27, the day after Thanksgiving. Cyber Monday follows on November 30.
How much does traffic usually rise on Black Friday?
It varies hugely by store, category and how much you spend on ads for the event. Use your own numbers from a previous year if you have them, rather than a generic figure.
Should I discount more if I expect less traffic?
Not necessarily. A deeper discount can raise conversion rate, but it also lowers order value. Model both scenarios rather than assuming a bigger discount always means more revenue.
How much extra stock should I order?
This calculator applies a safety stock buffer on top of the forecast so you don't run out if the sale performs better than expected. Adjust the buffer based on how confident you are in the forecast.
Related tools
Want this builtinto your store?
I'm Emmanuel, a Shopify and WooCommerce developer. If this tool pointed at something you'd rather have fixed for you (a faster store, cleaner product data, a migration, a custom feature), send me a note.
Emmanuel Asika
Shopify & WooCommerce developer, Dublin
I build and fix online stores: new builds, migrations, speed, SEO and the custom bits apps can't do.
Last reviewed 30 September 2026.