Subscription Revenue Calculator
Project your monthly recurring revenue forward from today's subscribers, signups, churn and skipped orders.
Your numbers
Your result · updates as you type
Projected MRR in 6 months
$65,535
Starting from $50,688 today, at 140 signups and 6% monthly churn. Subscribers settle around 2,333 at a steady state, worth $98,560 MRR.
- Subscribers today
- 1,200
- Subscribers in 6 months
- 1,551
- Steady-state MRR (long run)
- $98,560
This is a simple month-over-month model: constant signups and a constant churn rate. Seasonality (gifting spikes, post-holiday cancellations) will move actual numbers around it.
Breakdown
- MRR today
- $50,688
- MRR, month 1
- $53,560
- MRR, month 6
- $65,535
- Steady-state subscribers (signups ÷ churn)
- 2,333
- Steady-state MRR
- $98,560
A simple month-by-month model
Each month, subscribers who didn't churn carry forward, new signups are added, and a share of active subscribers skip that month's order (common on subscribe-and-save). MRR is what's left after skips, times the subscription price.
Example: the default numbers, projected 6 months
- Subscribers today
- 1,200
- New signups per month
- 140
- Monthly churn
- 6%
- Skip rate
- 12%
MRR today is $50,688. By month 6, subscribers reach 1,551 and MRR reaches $65,535. Left running indefinitely at these rates, the subscriber base settles at a steady state of about 2,333 subscribers, worth $98,560 MRR.
Reading the steady state
- Steady-state subscribers = signups ÷ churn rate. If that number is lower than your subscriber count today, the base is on track to shrink over time even with positive signups, unless churn improves or signups rise.
- This is a simplified model: constant signups and a constant churn rate, month after month. Real numbers move around it with seasonality (gifting season signups, post-holiday cancellations), so use it for direction, not a precise forecast.
- Skip rate matters as much as churn for near-term revenue: a subscriber who skips this month isn't gone, but still isn't billed.
Questions people ask
How is MRR projected forward?
Each month, existing subscribers carry forward minus churn, new signups are added, and revenue is calculated from active subscribers minus anyone skipping that cycle, times the subscription price.
What's steady-state MRR?
The MRR the subscriber base settles at if churn and signup rates stay constant indefinitely: signups divided by churn rate gives the steady-state subscriber count.
Does this account for price changes or upsells?
No, it assumes one flat subscription price. For a business with multiple tiers, run the calculator once per tier and add the results.
Why is my actual MRR different from the projection?
The model assumes constant monthly churn and signups. Real churn spikes after gifting seasons, and signups vary with marketing spend, so treat this as a baseline scenario rather than an exact forecast.
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I'm Emmanuel, a Shopify and WooCommerce developer. If this tool pointed at something you'd rather have fixed for you (a faster store, cleaner product data, a migration, a custom feature), send me a note.
Emmanuel Asika
Shopify & WooCommerce developer, Dublin
I build and fix online stores: new builds, migrations, speed, SEO and the custom bits apps can't do.
Last reviewed 30 September 2026.